SIR Economics Investigations Abstract
FORECASTING CHINA’S FUTURE USING HISTORICAL ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT ANALYSIS
Presenter:
Caleb Wang, Illinois Mathematics and Science Academy
Advisor:
Mr. Mike Levert, Levert Financial
Abstract:
Most economic forecasts use complicated mathematical algorithms to predict the future of national economies. Using millions of data points and considering an infinite number of variables, these forecasts are usually fairly accurate. However, this process requires that these data sets be available. If the necessary data is not accessible, researchers are forced to gather it themselves, a process that can take years or be impossible depending on the governmental policy of the country in question. This study explores another approach to economic forecasting by examining historical economic snapshots of developed countries such as the United States and comparing them with present economic snapshots of developing countries. Through this process, we can pinpoint exactly what stage of development a country is at. This way, we can mathematically derive a forecast with a smaller amount of data. This study compared and contrasted the snapshots of present China as well as 1982 United States as described in the book Megatrends. In this comparison, we saw remarkable similarities between present China and 1982 United States. Considering our comparison, variables such as population and technology, as well as the assumption that China is in favor of economic growth, we can predict that China will become similar to the United States economically in close to four decades.